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A Thintri MARKET STUDY: 2018:
Market Opportunities in Eye Tracking

Thintri, Inc. announces the release of Market Opportunities in Eye Tracking, 2018, an update to Thintri’s 2015 market study that analyzes the extraordinary opportunities emerging in the use of eye tracking for a wide range of applications. This comprehensive examination discusses the development of new eye tracking technologies that are often inexpensive and easily implemented, resulting in new applications that, in some cases, are poised to create billion-dollar markets. The report includes market forecasts to 2024.

Control Applications

• Human-computer interaction
• Smartphone control
• Gaming
• Virtual/Augmented Reality
• Controlling household appliances
• Hands-free operation of industrial equipment
• Hands-free operation of surgical instruments
• Defense and aerospace

Passive Applications

• Medical diagnosis
• Psychiatric diagnosis
• Learning and reading disabilities
• Psychology
• Biometrics
• Forensics
• Automotive safety
• Visual media development
• Website design
• Advertising development
• Product development
• Market research
• Human factors engineering
• Training simulators

Market Demand

2018 to 2024 forecasts

• Control markets
• Passive/observation markets
• Regional markets
• Market evolution
• Medical control markets
• Medical passive markets
• Control for the disabled
• Gaming/VR/AR
• Mobile applications
• Market research
• Advertising research
• Automotive markets
• Webcam-based markets
• And more…
  

Background on Eye Tracking

Eye tracking, the detection and determination of the direction of a person’s gaze while following and recording the movement of the gaze from one point to another, has long been available for use by paralyzed patients to control computers and other devices. Because the systems were sold in low volumes and had to meet extraordinary requirements in performance, comfort and reliability, prices remained too high for many worthy applications. And because of the low volumes, there was little incentive to develop new capabilities and cultivate new markets.

All that is changing with the advent of new, inexpensive eye tracking tools. As recently as ten years ago, tracking the eye movements of test shoppers in a store required them to be tethered to bulky computer equipment pushed behind them in a trolley. Today, the same task can be accomplished with a pair of wireless goggles.

Outside of a couple of demanding applications like gaming and virtual/augmented reality, where goggles will still be common, the bulky goggles and even eye-contact devices that recorded gaze direction in the past are being replaced with a simple infrared source attached to a computer, tablet or other device. The increased comfort for the subject, combined with the inherently low cost of the source/detector system, are on the verge of creating huge markets.

Providing access to technologies for the disabled will continue to be an important application, but that market is nearing saturation, and may even face decline with growing issues in funding. However, the breadth and promise of emerging applications for eye tracking are startling. Medical personnel will be able to diagnose brain injury, neurological disease, Parkinson’s disease, ADD/ADHD, learning/reading disabilities and even psychiatric conditions, all with a simple, inexpensive eye tracking tool. As each individual has unique eye tracking characteristics, eye tracking can be used in biometrics. Law enforcement can use eye tracking to evaluate the accuracy and certainty of a witness’ decisions when viewing a police lineup. Eye tracking will provide tremendous benefits in website design and the development of virtually anything that is meant to be viewed.

Some emerging applications offer the promise of growth to billion-dollar levels within a decade. Already, eye tracking systems are used in detecting fatigue and sleepiness in operators of heavy machinery, such as mining vehicles. As the technology moves into the consumer automotive market, growth will be explosive. In gaming, eye tracking will allow control in first-person shooter games with unprecedented speed. A gamer will need only glance at a target while pressing a button to shoot. Already, laptops are available with built-in eye tracking technology for gaming. Smartphones are available that allow control such as scrolling by eye movement.

Some of the greatest opportunities are in market and advertising research. The development of inexpensive eye tracking systems that combine webcams and online platforms will allow virtually any small or medium-sized business to conduct extensive market research online, where subjects from all over the world can be tested from their homes, without the need to travel.

Nevertheless, there are limitations to today’s eye tracking technology. The tools cannot, for example, determine whether a subject has seen something consciously or unconsciously, or whether something was seen something in peripheral vision. The hardware also cannot tell why users are looking at an object, whether their gaze is an indication of interest or repulsion. Basically, the tools say relatively little about a user’s thought processes, but an emerging solution to this problem lies in neuromarketing, the combination of eye tracking with other sensors, such as ECG, EEG and particularly facial expression analysis. The combination of several modalities in neuromarketing promises to be as fundamental a breakthrough in this decade as eye tracking is today.

Understand the Markets

Eye tracking is a relatively mature technology; most significant technical obstacles have already been resolved. The only major hurdle at this time is user education and awareness. The eye tracking industry today has only scratched the surface of the opportunities facing a uniquely versatile and useful technology.

Established industry players are opening up markets, and will most likely be successful in doing so, but it is also the smaller players and startups that are pointing the way to billion-dollar markets, by finding opportunities and rapidly developing inexpensive products and services to serve those markets. In many cases, the smaller and less costly eye tracking tools will, as expected, compromise accuracy and resolution. However, this can be compensated for in market research, for example, by reaching vast numbers of test subjects at very low cost, allowing even greater reliability and accuracy than many in-lab studies.

Thintri’s market study, Market Opportunities in Eye Tracking, examines the leading technical solutions to eye tracking, new and established applications, and forecasts the development of these markets to 2024.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary        1

E.1 Eye Tracking - Background        1
E.2 Eye Tracking Technology        2
E.3 Applications        4
E.4 Markets        9
       Figure E-1 Overall Addressable Market, Eye Tracking Technology         9
       Figure E-2 Addressable Market Share by Application, 2015 and 2022         11
       Figure E-3 Overall Addressable Markets, Control Applications        12
       Figure E-4 Overall Addressable Markets, Observation        12
       Figure E-5 Overall Addressable Markets, Market/Advertising Research         13
       Figure E-6 Market Evolution, Traditional vs. Webcam-Based, 2015 and 2022        14
       Figure E-7 Addressable Markets, Webcam-Based Eye Tracking, Market Research        15

Chapter 1 Background – Why Eye Tracking?        16

Chapter 2 Technology        19

2.1 Introduction        19
2.2 The Human Eye        19
2.3 History        22
2.4 Eye Tracking Technology        24
2.5 Systems and Techniques        28
2.7 Hardware and Software Today        33
2.8 Gaming Industry Developments        36
2.9 Developments in Mobile Devices        37

Chapter 3 Applications        40

3.1 Introduction        40
3.2 Computer Input & Control        41
3.3 Medical/Disability/Learning        42
       3.3.1 Technology Access for the Disabled        42
       3.3.2 Passive Medical Applications         43
       3.3.3 Applications in Learning and Reading        45
3.4 Research – Market Research, Psychology, etc.        48
       3.4.1 Visual Media        49
       3.4.2 Advertising         50
       3.4.3 Market Research        51
       3.4.4 Website Design        54
3.5 Biometrics and Forensics        58
       3.5.1 Biometrics        58
       3.5.2 Forensics        59
3.6 Gaming/VR/AR        60
3.7 Automotive         63
3.8 Privacy Issues         64
3.9 Defense and Aerospace        66
3.10 Best Practices in Eye Tracking        67

Chapter 4 Markets        68

4.1 Introduction        68
       Figure 4-1 Overall Addressable Market, Eye Tracking Technology        69
4.2 Regional Markets & Differences        69
       Figure 4-2 Addressable Markets, Eye Tracking, by Region        71
       Figure 4-3 Proportional Eye Tracking Markets by Region        71
4.3 Market Evolution        71
       Figure 4-4 Addressable Market Share by Application, 2015 and 2022        74
4.4 Control/Detection        74
       Figure 4-5 Overall Addressable Markets, Control Applications        75
       4.4.1 Non-Medical Computer Control        75
       Figure 4-6 Addressable Market, Non-Medical Computer Control         76
       4.4.2 Medical/Disability        76
       Figure 4-7 Medical Market, Control for the Disabled        79
       Figure 4-8 Evolution of Medical Market, 2015 and 2022        80
       Figure 4-9 Overall Addressable Markets, Medical         80
       4.4.3 Gaming/Virtual Reality/Augmented Reality        80
       Figure 4-10 Addressable Markets, Gaming, VR/AR        81
       4.4.4 Mobile Devices        81
       Figure 4-11 Addressable Markets, Mobile Applications        82
       4.4.5 Commerce        82
4.5 Research/Observation, Market Research and Neural Marketing        84
       Figure 4-12 Overall Addressable Market, Observation        84
       Figure 4-13 Overall Addressable Market, Market/Advertising Research        85
       4.5.1 Emerging Medical/Learning Markets, Non-Control        85
       Figure 4-14 Addressable Markets, Medical, Passive         86
       4.5.2 Automotive        86
       Figure 4-15 Addressable Markets, Automotive         87
       4.5.3 Traditional Market Research Using Eye Tracking         87
       Figure 4-16 Addressable Markets, “Traditional” Market Research, In-Lab, In-Store      88
       4.5.4 Online Market/Advertising Research        88
       Figure 4-17 Addressable Markets, Online Content Evaluation, In-Lab        89
       Figure 4-18 Addressable Markets, Website Development        91
       Figure 4-19 Market Evolution, Traditional vs. Webcam-Based, 2015 and 2022        95
       Figure 4-20 Addressable Markets, Webcam-Based Eye Tracking, Market Research       95
       Figure 4-21 Addressable Markets, Other Observation        96
4.6 The Contrary Opinion        99
4.7 Summary        101