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Background on Millimeter Wave Systems and Their Markets

Understanding the Markets

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Updated for 2016:
Millimeter Waves: Emerging Markets

Millimeter Waves: Emerging Markets

Thintri, Inc. announces the release of Millimeter Waves: Emerging Markets, a new market study that explores the current state of millimeter wave technology and market opportunities for systems operating in the millimeter wave range. This in-depth investigation, the second update to Thintri's original 2010 study, discusses millimeter wave technologies already creating significant markets, emerging market opportunities, and overall market development. The report surveys today's technologies and applications, separates hype from reality and assesses the applications where millimeter wave technology will open up significant new markets, with market forecasts going out to 2023.

Millimeter Wave Systems Overview

  • Technology Background
  • Technical Issues (GaAs vs. SiGe/CMOS, packaging, components, etc.) 
  • Public Policy, Regulation, Licensing
  • Standards (Wireless HD, WiGig, etc.)
  • Established Markets

Prime Applications

  • Imaging
  • Telecommunications
  • Consumer Products
  • Defense & Security

Imaging

  • Active vs. Passive Systems
  • Markets in Checkpoint Security – Airports, concerts, sports events, etc.
  • Markets in Loss Prevention/Inventory Control
  • Markets in Through-Wall Imaging
  • Markets in Consumer Retail/Clothing Sales
  • Issues of Privacy and Public Perception
  • Competition Technologies

Telecommunications

  • Established Lower-Frequency Applications
  • Applications for Millimeter Waves (Enterprise, Backhaul, PtP, etc.)
  • Licensed vs. Lightly Licensed vs. Unlicensed
  • Performance and Availability
  • 23 to 39 GHz Bands
  • 60 GHz Band Markets

Consumer Markets

  • 60 GHz: Consumer, Home Media Markets
    • Data Compression
    • Hardware Considerations
    • Market Growth
  • Automotive Radar
    • 24 GHz vs. 77 GHz
    • Market Growth: Trucks, Automobiles

Defense & Security Radar Markets

  • Smart Munitions
  • Perimeter & Surveillance Radar, Intrusion Detection
    • Defense vs. Private Sector
    • Range Considerations, Long Range vs. Short Range  
  • Marine Radar
  • Defense & Intelligence Communications

Other Millimeter Wave Markets

  • Commercial Ka-Band Satellite (VSAT) Communications
  • Medicine and Health
  • Chemical Monitoring
  • Construction and Infrastructure 
  • Manufacturing

Background on Millimeter Wave Systems and Their Markets

Millimeter wave (MMW) radiation, that portion of the electromagnetic spectrum generally defined as 20 GHz to 300 GHz, has gained commercial traction in the past decade or so. Now, evolution in technology and changes in the regulatory environment have expanded opportunities in existing millimeter wave applications and opened new, potentially very large markets.

MMW imaging is established in airport security and markets are rapidly growing in loss prevention, where systems can quickly scan employees leaving a manufacturing facility to prevent theft. New technology will soon dramatically reduce the cost of such imaging systems, allowing their adoption in a much broader range of venues such as courthouses, concerts, stadiums, schools, dance clubs and many others. Systems are even commercially available for retail clothing shoppers to conduct body measurements to determine clothing sizes and recommend appropriate products and brands. 

MMW systems are also transforming telecommunications, offering data rates that approach those of fiber. E-band links are quickly capturing markets in backhaul, where they can be deployed quickly and at a small fraction of the cost of laying optical fiber.  

Millimeter waves may be the only viable solution to the bandwidth challenges facing today's telecom industry as it transitions to next-generation 5G networks. Some 4G networks are already approaching the theoretical limit on how much data can be squeezed into a given band. Experts predict that by the year 2020, more than 50 billion devices, including tracking tags, body sensors, vehicles, clothing and a broad range of appliances, sensors and other technologies, will be connected to mobile networks. Wireless data transfer volumes will be 1,000 times greater than they are today, with demand for data transfer rates at 10 to 100 times faster than is practical today.

One of the most exciting frontiers in telecommunications is fixed wireless Internet access, where MMW systems are about to facilitate a game-changing market shift. As small, highly flexible startups move to offer MMW-based wireless Internet access across broad geographic regions, the walls that once served to separate the various access suppliers will break down. The result will be a Wild West scenario where a large number of players, large and small, compete to offer consumers and businesses up to gigabit data rates at low cost.

Likewise, satellite Internet access, serving rural users and ships at sea, will create billion-dollar markets for millimeter wave equipment.

Automotive radar is another burgeoning market. Eventually, as collision avoidance systems in cars and trucks becomes standard and even mandated in some places, the advantages of millimeter waves in achieving low cost radar systems with high resolution will lead to billion-dollar revenue streams.

The unique properties of millimeter waves lend them to a host of other markets as well, including manufacturing process and quality control, medical diagnosis, munitions guidance, security perimeter radar, and monitoring of chemical processing and pipelines.

The Thintri market study, Millimeter Waves: Emerging Markets, makes use of extensive, in-depth interviews with industry executives, market development managers and government and academic researchers. The report provides a survey of the current state of the art in millimeter wave technology, an assessment of potential applications in terms of their commercial viability, discussion of market development and forecasts for individual markets from 2016 to 2023.

Understand the Markets

The outlook for millimeter wave technology is extraordinarily promising. Steady reductions in hardware cost and progress in system development are dovetailing with growing demand in a number of markets and, in some cases, greatly relaxed regulation, all leading to growth in widely diverse markets. Depending on the market, that growth is already well underway, is starting now, or will start soon. Most importantly, some of the most significant markets, including security and telecommunications, are not only potentially quite large but relatively immune to economic conditions. Other developers are making use of new technologies to bring millimeter wave systems within striking distance of mass markets.  

Some emerging markets require little more than education of users in the capability of millimeter wave systems while in others, that case has already been made and equipment sales are growing rapidly. In most areas, technologies have matured to the extent that scientific understanding is not an issue; instead, the principal requirement is bringing prices in line with market demand. 

 


Order today
#MMW3—
Millimeter Waves: Emerging Markets

Price: $4,800


Report Table of Contents:

Part 1: Overview     1

E.1    Introduction   1
E.1    Established Millimeter Wave Markets 1
E.2    Technology & Hardware     2
E.3    Regulation and Public Policy    2
E.4    Imaging   3
E.5    Telecommunications     4
E.6    Consumer Markets   5
E.7    Defense and Security Radar   6
E.8    Other Millimeter Wave Markets    7
        E.8.1    VSATs       7
        E.8.2     Medicine and Health      8
        E.8.3    Chemical Monitoring      8
        E.8.4    Construction and Infrastructure       9
        E.8.5    Manufacturing     9

Part 1: Overview    10

1.1    Introduction     10
Figure 1-1    Primary US Microwave and Millimeter Wave Band Allocations     10
1.2     History             13
Figure 1-2    Prof. J.C. Bose with his millimeter wave equipment, 1897  14
1.3    Current Markets             15
        1.3.1     Telecommunications       15
        1.3.2    Radar      16
1.4    Technology Basics       17
Figure 1-3    Propagation of Millimeter Waves     18
Figure 1-4    Absorption of Millimeter Waves by Atmospheric Oxygen and Water Vapor       19
Figure 1-5    Overall Atmospheric Absorption Mechanisms of Electromagnetic Radiation     20
1.5    Why Millimeter Waves?     21

Part 2: Technology and Hardware    22

2.1    Semiconductors and Packaging    22
        2.1.1     Material Systems: GaAs, GaN, SiGe and CMOS     22
        2.1.2    Packaging: MCM vs. SMT   28
        2.1.3    Devices, Circuits & Components       29
        2.1.4    RF-MEMS Switches        29
2.2    Transmission Lines    30
2.3    Antennas       31
2.4    Transceivers & Receivers       32
2.5    Systems      32
2.6    Modulation      34
        2.6.1    Amplitude Shift Keying       34
        2.6.2    Frequency Shift Keying         34
        2.6.3    Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing   35

Part 3: Technical and Safety Issues     36

3.1    Technical Issues      36
3.2    Safety     8

Part 4: Public Policy, Regulation, and Standards     40

4.1    Background: Growth of the Current Regulatory Climate      40
4.2    New FCC Rule Changes    41
4.3    E-band Regulation     43
4.4    The Effect of Local Government    45
4.5    Standards    5
        4.5.1    Low Frequency Options       46
        4.5.2    Higher Frequency Standards   48
        4.5.3    Summary       51

Part 5: Imaging     52

5.1    Introduction    52
5.2    Imaging Technology    53
Figure 5-1    Scissors Imaged Through a Closed Container     53
Figure 5-2    Cookies Imaged Through a Closed Container     53
5.3    Imaging Applications    56
        5.3.1    Checkpoint Security: Airports & Other Public Venues    56
        5.3.2    Inventory Control, Theft Prevention    59
        5.3.3    Through-Wall Imaging    60
        5.3.4    Consumer Retail     62
5.4    Active vs. Passive Systems    64
        5.4.1     Technical Comparison    64
        5.4.2     Application/Market Comparison    67
Figure 5-3     Checkpoint Security Imaging Market, Active vs. Passive System Share    69
5.5     Issues of Acceptance: Privacy and Public Perception    69
Figure 5-4    Active millimeter wave images    70
Figure 5-5    TSA Chart on Millimeter Wave Scanners    72
5.6    The Competition: Backscatter X-Ray    73
5.7    Millimeter Wave Imaging Markets    75
        5.7.1    Market Development    75
        5.7.2    Checkpoint Security Imaging Markets     77
Figure 5-6    Millimeter Wave Imaging Systems Sales in Checkpoint Security, Unit Sales    80
Figure 5-7    Millimeter Wave Imaging Systems Sales in Checkpoint Security, Market Volume    80
        5.7.3     Inventory Control and Loss Prevention Imaging Markets    80
Figure 5-8     Imaging Systems Sales, Loss Prevention, Unit Sales    81
Figure 5-9    Imaging Systems Sales, Loss Prevention, Market Volume    82
        5.7.4    Through-Wall Imaging Markets    82
Figure 5-10    Millimeter Wave Through-Wall Imaging Systems, Market Volume    82
        5.7.5    Consumer Retail Imaging Markets    83
Figure 5-11    Imaging Systems Sales in Consumer Retail, Market Volume    83
        5.7.6    Handheld Systems    83
Figure 5-12    Handheld MMW Imaging System Sales, Unit Sales    84
Figure 5-13    Handheld MMW Imaging System Sales, Market Volume    85

Part 6: Telecommunications    86

6.1    Introduction    86
        6.1.1    Conventional Microwave Links    86
Figure 6-1    Conventional Microwave Links, Market Volumes    87
Figure 6-2    Conventional Microwave Links, Unit Sales    88
Figure 6-3    Conventional Microwave Links, Hardware Sales by Component     88
Figure 6-4    Relative Share of Mobile vs. Enterprise Networks, 6 - 38 GHz, 2016      89
        6.1.2    The advent of Millimeter Wave Systems in Telecommunications    89
6.2    5G: Backhaul and the Small Cell Model     94
6.3    Licensed vs. Lightly Licensed vs. Unlicensed    97
6.4    The 23, 24, 26 and 39 GHz Bands    99
        6.4.1    23 and 26 GHz Bands    99
        6.4.2    24 and 39 GHz Bands    99
6.5    60 GHz    101
        6.5.1    60 GHz Telecommunications Applications    102
        6.5.2    Short Range: WiGig and WirelessHD    104
        6.5.3    Benefits of 60 GHz Technology     106
6.6    The E-band    107
        6.6.1    Background    107
        6.6.2    Propagation Characteristics    108
        6.6.3    Performance, Reliability and Availability    109
Table 6-1    Five Nines Link Range and Availability for Several Cities    110
        6.6.4    Applications & Users     112
Table 6-2    Frequency vs. Beamwidth at 1 km using a 1 foot diameter antenna    113
Figure 6-5    Beamwidth comparisons for wireless backhaul solutions    115
        6.6.5    E-band Licensing    118
6.7    The Competitive Technology Landscape    119
Figure 6-6    Telecommunications Backhaul: Shares by Technology    120
6.8    The Millimeter Wave Telecom Market    121
        6.8.1    Past Market Growth     121
        6.8.2    The Shift to backhaul    122
        6.8.3    WISPs: Fixed Wireless Internet Access     123
        6.8.4    Present and Future Market Growth    130
Figure 6-7    Markets, Millimeter Wave Telecommunications Links, 20 to 38 GHz    131
Figure 6-8    Markets, 20 to 38 GHz, by Component     131
Figure 6-9    Millimeter Wave Systems Markets, Telecom, 60 GHz     132
Figure 6-10    Telecom Systems Markets by Component, 60 GHz     133
Figure 6-11    Millimeter Wave Systems Markets, Telecom, 60 GHz, Unit Sales     133
Figure 6-12    Millimeter Wave Systems Markets, Telecom, E-band    134
Figure 6-13    Telecom Systems Markets by Component, E-band    134
Figure 6-14    Millimeter Wave Systems Markets, Telecom, E-band, Unit Sales    135
Figure 6-15    Millimeter Wave Systems Markets, 60 GHz, by Application    135
Figure 6-16    Millimeter Wave Systems Markets, E-band, by Application    136
Figure 6-17    E-band Enterprise Markets, Government/Municipalities, General Business    136
Figure 6-18    E-band Enterprise Markets, Healthcare, Education, Misc.     137

Part 7: Consumer & Automotive    138

7.1    Introduction    138
7.2    60 GHz Systems: Consumer & Home Media    139
        7.2.1    Background: 60 GHz in Multimedia    139
        7.2.2    Data Compression    141
        7.2.3    Hardware Considerations    142
        7.2.4    60 GHz Consumer Media Markets    143
Figure 7-1    Markets for 60 GHz Consumer Multimedia Products    144
Figure 7-2     Markets for 60 GHz Consumer Multimedia Products, Unit Sales    144
7.3    Automotive Radar    145
        7.3.1    Background: Millimeter Wave Radar    145
        7.3.2     MMW Radar Applied to Transportation    146
        7.3.3    History    148
Figure 7-3    The 1959 Cadillac Cyclone with Radar    148
    7.3.4    MMW Radar Technology    150
    7.3.5    24 GHz vs. 60 GHz vs. 77 GHz vs. 79 GHz    153
Table 7.1    Assigned Tasks by Band    155
Figure 7-4    Market Share, Auto Radar, 24 GHz vs. 77 GHz, Automobiles    156
Figure 7-5    Market Share, Auto Radar, 24 GHz vs. 77 GHz, Trucks    157
        7.3.6    Infrastructure and Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communications    158
        7.3.7    Automotive Radar Markets    158
Figure 7-6     Worldwide Unit Sales, Cars and Trucks    160
Figure 7-7    Unit Sales, Radar Systems, Trucks and Automobiles    161
Figure 7-8    Markets for Automotive Radar, 24 GHz and 77 GHz    161

Part 8: Defense & Security Markets    163

8.1    Background    163
8.2    Millimeter Wave Radar for Security and Intrusion Detection    164
        8.2.1    Perimeter and Surveillance Radar     165
        8.2.2    Range Considerations    167
        8.2.3    Technical Considerations    168
8.3    Munitions Applications    168
8.4    Marine Radar    169
8.5    Defense and Intelligence Communications    170
8.6    Active Denial Systems and Non-Lethal Weapons    171
8.7    Defense & Security System Markets    172
Figure 8-1    Surveillance/Perimeter Radar, Defense vs. Non-Defense, 2016    173
Figure 8-2    Millimeter Wave Surveillance/Perimeter Radar Markets     173
Figure 8-3    Millimeter Wave Munitions Radar Markets    174
Figure 8-4    Marine Radar Millimeter Wave Markets    175
Figure 8-5    Defense & Intelligence Millimeter Wave Communications Markets    175
Figure 8-6    Overall Defense & Security Markets    176

Part 9: Other Millimeter Wave Markets    177

9.1    Commercial Ka-band Satellite Communications    177
Figure 9-1    Unit Sales, VSAT Terminals    181
9.2    Medicine and Health    182
Figure 9-2    Millimeter Wave Markets in Medicine, Health and Safety    185
9.3    Chemical Monitoring    185
Figure 9-3    Markets for Millimeter Wave Systems in Chemical Monitoring    186
9.4    Construction & Infrastructure             186
Figure 9-4    Millimeter Wave Systems Markets in Construction and Infrastructure    187
9.5     Manufacturing    187
Figure 9-5    Millimeter Wave Markets in Manufacturing    188

Part 10: Millimeter Wave Semiconductor Markets     189

10.1    Introduction    189
10.2    The Evolving Semiconductor Landscape    189
Figure 10-1    Overall MMICs by Application, All Frequencies, 2016    191
Figure 10-2     MMIC Sales by Application, Millimeter Wave Only, 2023    192
10.3    Consumer Applications    192
Figure 10-3    Semiconductor Markets in Car Radar, Multimedia    192
10.4    Imaging    193
Figure 10-4    Millimeter Wave Semiconductor Markets, Active Imaging Systems    193
Figure 10-5    Millimeter Wave Semiconductor Markets, Passive Imaging Systems    194
10.5    Defense and Security    194
Figure 10-6    Defense & Security Millimeter Wave Semiconductor Markets    195
10.6     Telecommunications    195
Figure 10-7    Telecommunications Millimeter Wave Semiconductor Markets    195
10.7    Other Millimeter Wave Applications     196
Figure 10-8    Semiconductor Markets in Other Millimeter Wave Applications    196



Order today
#MMW3—
Millimeter Waves: Emerging Markets

$4,800





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