| Background on Platinum Group Metals
Understanding the Opportunities
View Table of Contents
Download Brochure (includes TOC and list of Figures) (PDF)
|
2012:
Platinum Group Metals: Issues and Opportunities
Thintri, Inc. announces the release of Platinum Group Metals: Issues and Opportunities, a new market study that surveys current market conditions in platinum group metals (PGMs), and analyzes emerging demand, supply constraints and price volatility. The report also explores opportunities generated by new techniques of PGM recovery from previously-unused resources, and opportunities created by development of new, much less costly substitutes.
The report separates hype from reality and assesses the dramatically changing landscape facing PGM users and suppliers. Forecasts are supplied for demand and prices under current conditions going out to 2020, as well as an analysis of the effects of new technologies for PGM replacement and recovery.
Background on PGMs
Sourcing and Suppliers
Applications
- Automotive and
- Transportation
- Electronics/Electrical
- Medical/Dental
- Industrial and Scientific
- Jewelry, Investment and Coinage
The Supply Side
- “Peak Metals”
- Supply Threats
- Response to Shortages
- Political Issues
- Long-Term Solutions
The Demand Side
- The Automotive Demand Driver
- The Jewelry and Investment Demand Drivers
- The Petroleum Demand Driver
- Industrial Demand Drivers
- Medical/Biomedical/Dental Demand Drivers
- Other Demand Drivers
- PGM Demand by element
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Rhodium
- Iridium
- Ruthenium
- Osmium
- Effects of Alternative Energy Schemes
Price Trends
- PGM Replacement
- Precious Metals and Reduced-PGM
- PGM-Free and Reduced PGM Autocatalysts
- Alternatives Based on Conventional Chemistry
- Alternatives Based on Nanotechnology
- Electrolysis Catalyst Alternatives
- Impact of Alternatives on PGM Demand and Price
Scrap and Recovery
- Improved Recycling Schemes
- Slag and Mine Waste
Background on Platinum Group Metals
Platinum group metals (PGMs), namely platinum, palladium, rhodium, iridium, ruthenium and osmium, are rare, expensive and critical to today’s economy. Up to now, there have been no other materials that can duplicate their performance in fundamental applications. Those applications include autocatalysts, the critical components in the catalytic converters found in most vehicles that reduce harmful emission; catalysts used in a broad range of industrial processes, including petroleum refining; high-temperature processing of abrasive materials such as glass; disc drives and electronic components; medical and dental implants and devices; and electrochemistry. Of course, PGMs are also highly prized in jewelry and investment.
Prices of PGMs are high and notoriously volatile. Rhodium, for example, went from slightly over $6,000 per ounce in mid-2007, to $10,000 per ounce in mid-2008 and then crashed to a little above $1,000 before the end of that year. While this degree of fluctuation is exceptional, it’s emblematic of the behavior of critical materials in limited supply, tied to broader economic forces like auto sales.
At this time, the limits of supply are becoming clear. Like most natural resources, PGM supplies are inherently limited. Concerns about “peak metals,” the idea that availability has peaked for limited resources and future production will be reduced and/or more costly (which has already occurred for a number of important minerals), will soon be an important influence with PGMs. Already, Russia, the largest palladium producer, has announced that its supplies of palladium are dwindling.
Tightening of supplies comes at a time of accelerating demand. Growth of auto sales and industrialization in the developing world, particularly Brazil, Russia, India and China (the BRIC countries), as well as interest in PGM jewelry and investment by newly-prosperous populations, will place significant stress on available supplies. In addition, tightening environmental restrictions are forcing the use of more PGMs per vehicle to meet emissions rules. Also, building of new oil refineries and industrial growth in a recovering economy will put further stress on supplies. Other demand drivers like medical and petroleum, which are functions of aging populations and global economic shifts, will place stress on PGM supplies as well.
Analyses indicate that presently-known platinum reserves are sufficient for another 360 years at present rates of production and consumption. However, that estimate drops to 15 years if growing demand, particularly from growing industrialization and automobile sales in the developing world, is taken into account.
With demand growth, inelasticity of supply will force up prices in this decade dramatically.
The response to scarcity will no doubt include reduction in PGM consumption through “thrifting,” i.e, the devising of ways to use less PGMs in established applications (which has been underway for decades). Also, rising prices will mean that deposits with lower PGM content such as those in Australia, which had been too costly to exploit in the past, will now be profitably mined, to some degree mitigating that price increase.
The most significant consequences, however, will be the development of high performance, low cost alternatives, and in improved recycling and recovery.
Alternatives are sometimes as simple as substituting a less expensive PGM, such as palladium, for a more expensive one, such as platinum. The more significant alternatives use nanotechnology with inexpensive materials such as nickel, to fine tune the properties of nanoparticles by controlling parameters such as diameter. Inexpensive nanomaterials can substitute for PGMs in some of the most important markets, such as catalysts in the automotive and industrial markets. PGM usage in some applications, such as jewelry and electronics, is relatively immune from substitution, but most applications are vulnerable.
Recycling will become more important as PGM prices rise. Newly available technologies are able to dramatically improve the amount of PGMs that can be captured from recycled products such as catalytic converters.
Other recently developed processes are able to extract significant quantities of PGMs from mine waste that contains much higher PGM concentrations than the best quality ores. Mountains of slag and mine waste in North America and worldwide contain enough PGMs to significantly impact the supply/demand/price picture for PGMs once exploited.
Alternatives that can capture markets directly from PGMs, and new technologies that can dramatically improve PGM recovery from recycled materials and mine waste, are already commercially available or very near commercialization and will exert a growing influence on markets now owned by PGMs and PGM prices and availability.
The confluence of growing demand, limited and/or dwindling supplies, and growing availability of alternatives and new supplies will likely create a period of extraordinary volatility before things stabilize. Most of this decade will witness the transition of established PGM markets as prices rise and users adjust to new conditions, while others take advantage of the new opportunities presented.
Understand the Opportunities
Platinum group metals are at an extraordinary intersection of market forces. Their rarity and expense has largely confined them to a limited set of markets. Those markets, in turn, are largely dependent on PGMs simply because there have been no viable, and cheaper, alternatives. The inelasticity of supply has led to occasionally extreme volatility in the past. Today, growing demand, fueled by a range of factors that include accelerating motor vehicle sales around the world, a rising industrial sector in many regions and a growing consumer preference for white metals in jewelry, while supplies are relatively fixed and in some cases declining, threatens to put PGMs in an even more volatile situation. As demand exceeds the available supplies, prices can be expected to rise significantly.
The Thintri market study, Platinum Group Metals: Issues and Opportunities, relies on in-depth interviews with industry executives, market development managers and government and academic researchers. The report provides a survey of the current state of the PGM markets, an assessment of viable alternatives and recovery schemes, and discussion of the effects of growing demand on availability and prices, and the effects on those prices of PGM replacement technologies and improved recovery methods.
 |
Order today
#PGM1—Platinum Group Metals: Issues and Opportunities
Price: $4,800
|
|
Report Table of Contents:
Executive Summary: Platinum Group Metals 1
E.1 Introduction 1
E.2 Applications 1
E.3 Supply, Demand and Price Issues 2
Figure E-1 Source Countries of PGMs 2
Figure E-2 Platinum Demand Forecast, Autocatalysts 4
Figure E-3 Palladium Price Forecast 4
E.4 PGM Replacement and Improved Recovery Methods 4
Figure E-4 Total Rhodium Displaced by Alternatives 6
Figure E-5 Resulting Rhodium Price, After Alternatives 6
Part 1 Background 7
1.1 Introduction 7
Table 1-1 Platinum Group Metals and Characteristics 7
Figure 1-1 Periodic Table of the Elements with PGMs Highlighted 8
Table 1-2 PGM Prices, February, 2012 9
1.2 The Elements 10
1.2.1 Platinum 10
1.2.2 Palladium 11
1.2.3 Rhodium 12
1.2.4 Iridium 12
1.2.5 Ruthenium 13
1.2.6 Osmium 13
1.3 Sourcing 14
1.3.1 Extraction 14
1.3.2 Major Producers 14
Part 2 Applications 16
2.1 Electronic components 16
2.2 Medical & Dental 17
2.3 Industrial and Scientific 19
2.3.1 General Industrial 19
2.3.2 Glass Manufacture 20
2.3.3 Scientific 21
2.4 Automotive: Spark Plugs and Sensors 22
2.5 Jewelry 23
2.6 Investment and Coinage 24
2.7 Catalysts 25
2.7.1 Catalysts: Industrial 25
2.7.2 Catalysts: Petroleum 27
2.7.3 Catalysts: Automotive 27
2.7.4 Catalysts: Fuel Cells 31
Figure 2-1 PEMFC Fuel Cell Operation 32
Part 3 The Supply Side: Supplies, Peak Metals & Scarcity 36
3.1 Today’s PGM Sources 36
Figure 3-1 PGM Production by Country 36
Figure 3-2 Platinum Production by Country 37
Figure 3-3 Palladium Production by Country 37
Figure 3-4 Other PGM Production by Country 38
3.2 Peak Metals & Scarcity 38
Table 3-1 Minerals That Have Already Peaked 39
3.3 Response to Shortages 40
3.4 Lessons from the 1970s Cobalt Crisis 41
3.5 Today’s Supply Threats: Palladium 42
3.6 Political Issues 43
3.7 Long-Term Solutions: Near-Earth Asteroid Mining 44
Part 4 The Demand Side: Market Growth and Price Trends 46
4.1 Introduction 46
4.2 The Automotive Demand Driver 46
Figure 4-1 Platinum Demand by Region,Autocatalysts, 2012 49
Figure 4-2 Palladium Demand by Region, Autocatalysts 2012 50
Figure 4-3 Platinum Demand Forecast, Autocatalysts 50
Figure 4-4 Platinum Demand Forecast by Region, Autocatalysts 51
Figure 4-5 Palladium Demand Forecast – Autocatalysts 51
Figure 4-6 Palladium Demand Forecast by Region, Autocatalysts 52
Figure 4-7 Rhodium Demand Forecast, Autocatalysts 52
4.3 The Jewelry and Investment Demand Drivers 52
Figure 4-8 Platinum Demand by Region, Investment and Jewelry, 2012 54
Figure 4-9 Palladium Demand by Region, Investment and Jewelry, 2012 54
Figure 4-10 Platinum Demand Forecast – Investment and Jewelry 55
Figure 4-11 Palladium Demand Forecast – Investment and Jewelry 55
4.4 The Petroleum Demand Driver 55
Figure 4-12 Platinum Demand by Region, Petroleum 2012 56
Figure 4-13 Platinum Demand Forecast, Petroleum 56
4.5 Industrial: Chemical, Electrical, Electrochemical and Glass Demand Drivers 56
Figure 4-14 Platinum Demand by Region, Chemical and Glass 2012 57
Figure 4-15 Palladium Demand by Region, Chemical 2012 57
Figure 4-16 Platinum Demand Forecast, Chemical and Glass 58
Figure 4-17 Palladium Demand Forecast – Chemical 58
Figure 4-18 Rhodium Demand Forecast – Chemical and Glass 59
Figure 4-19 Platinum Demand Forecast, Electrical 59
Figure 4-20 Palladium Demand Forecast – Electrical 60
Figure 4-21 Rhodium Demand Forecast – Electrical 60
Figure 4-22 Iridium Demand Forecast, Chemical, Electrical and Electrochemical 61
Figure 4-23 Ruthenium Demand Forecast, Chemical, Electrical and Electrochemical 61
4.6 Medical, Biomedical and Dental Demand Drivers 61
Figure 4-24 Platinum Demand by Region, Biomedical 2012 62
Figure 4-25 Platinum Demand Forecast – Biomedical 62
Figure 4-26 Palladium Demand by Region, Dental 2012 63
Figure 4-27 Palladium Demand Forecast, Dental 63
4.7 Other Market Drivers 63
Figure 4-28 Platinum Demand by Region, Other Applications 2012 64
Figure 4-29 Palladium Demand by Region, Other Applications 2012 64
Figure 4-30 Platinum Demand Forecast, Other Applications 65
Figure 4-31 Palladium Demand Forecast, Other Applications 65
Figure 4-32 Rhodium Demand Forecast, Other Applications 66
Figure 4-33 Iridium Demand Forecast, Other Applications 66
Figure 4-34 Ruthenium Demand Forecast, Other Applications 67
4.8 PGM Demand by Element 67
4.8.1 Platinum 67
Figure 4-35 Platinum Demand by Application, 2012 67
Figure 4-36 Platinum Demand by Region, 2012 68
Figure 4-37 Global Platinum Demand Forecast 69
Figure 4-38 Global Platinum Demand Forecast by Region 69
4.3 Palladium 69
Figure 4-39 Palladium Demand by Application, 2012 70
Figure 4-40 Palladium Demand by Region, 2012 70
Figure 4-41 Global Palladium Demand Forecast 71
Figure 4-42 Global Palladium Demand Forecast by Region 71
4.4 Rhodium 71
Figure 4-43 Rhodium Demand by Application, 2012 72
Figure 4-44 Rhodium Demand Forecast 73
4.5 Iridium, Ruthenium and Osmium 73
Figure 4-45 Iridium Demand by Application, 2012 74
Figure 4-46 Iridium Demand Forecast 74
Figure 4-47 Ruthenium Demand by Application, 2012 75
Figure 4-48 Ruthenium Demand Forecast 75
Figure 4-49 Osmium Demand by Application, 2012 76
Figure 4-50 Osmium Demand Forecast 76
4.7 Effects of Alternative Energy Schemes and the Hydrogen Economy 77
Figure 4-51 Production of Hydrogen, Shares by Method 78
Part 5 Price Trends 80
5.1 Introduction and Methodology 80
5.2 Demand Effects on PGM Price 80
Figure 5-1 Recent Rhodium Price History 82
5.3 Projected Price Trends 83
Figure 5-2 Price Trends, Platinum 83
Figure 5-3 Price Trends, Palladium 84
Figure 5-4 Price Trends, Rhodium 84
Figure 5-5 Price Trends, Iridium 85
Figure 5-6 Price Trends, Ruthenium 85
Figure 5-7 Price Trends, Osmium 86
Part 6 PGM Replacement 87
6.1 Introduction 87
6.2 Precious Metals as Alternatives and Reduced PGM-Schemes 87
6.2.1 Precious Metal-Based Substitutes in Autocatalysts 88
6.2.2 Jewelry 90
6.3 PGM-Free and Reduced PGM Autocatalysts 91
6.3.1 Alternatives Based on Conventional Chemistry 92
6.3.2 Alternatives Based on Nanotechnology 93
6.4 Electrolysis and Fuel Cell Catalyst Alternatives 95
6.4.1 Research Progress 95
6.4.2 Nanotechnology: Catalysts Based on Nanoparticles and
Nanotubes 98
6.5 Impact of Alternatives on PGM Demand and Price 101
6.5.1 Effects of Platinum Alternatives 102
Figure 6-1 Platinum Demand, Conventional Forecast 102
Figure 6-2 Platinum Demand Not Susceptible to Replacement 103
Figure 6-3 Autocatalysts: Platinum Displaced by Alternatives 103
Figure 6-4 Chemical: Platinum Displaced by Alternatives 104
Figure 6-5 Petroleum: Platinum Displaced by Alternatives 104
Figure 6-6 Total Platinum Displaced by Alternatives 105
Figure 6-7 Resulting Platinum Demand After Alternatives 105
Figure 6-8 Resulting Platinum Price, After Alternatives 106
Figure 6-9 Demand for Platinum Alternatives 106
6.5.2 Effects of Palladium Alternatives 106
Figure 6-10 Palladium Demand, Conventional Forecast 107
Figure 6-11 Palladium Demand Not Susceptible to Replacement 107
Figure 6-12 Autocatalysts: Palladium Displaced by Alternatives 108
Figure 6-13 Chemical: Palladium Displaced by Alternatives 108
Figure 6-14 Total Palladium Displaced by Alternatives 109
Figure 6-15 Resulting Palladium Demand After Alternatives 109
Figure 6-16 Resulting Palladium Price, After Alternatives 110
Figure 6-17 Demand for Palladium Alternatives 110
6.5.3 Effects of Rhodium Alternatives 110
Figure 6-18 Rhodium Demand, Conventional Forecast 111
Figure 6-19 Rhodium Demand Not Susceptible to Replacement 111
Figure 6-20 Autocatalysts: Rhodium Displaced by Alternatives 112
Figure 6-21 Chemical: Rhodium Displaced by Alternatives 112
Figure 6-22 Total Rhodium Displaced by Alternatives 113
Figure 6-23 Resulting Rhodium Demand After Alternatives 113
Figure 6-24 Resulting Rhodium Price, After Alternatives 114
Figure 6-25 Demand for Rhodium Alternatives 114
6.5.4 Effects of Alternatives in Hydrogen Fuel Cell Catalysis 114
Figure 6-26 Effect of Alternatives on PGM Demand in Hydrogen
Fuel Cells 115
Part 7 Opportunities in Recycling and Recovery 116
7.1 Introduction 116
7.2 Scrap & Recycling 116
Table 7-1 Energy Savings from Processing Scrap Compared with Ore 117
7.2.1 Electronics and Electrochemistry Scrap 118
7.2.2 Automotive Scrap 120
7.2.3 Market Opportunities in PGM Recycling 122
Figure 7-1 Realized Scrap Volume: Platinum 123
Figure 7-2 Unrealized Scrap Volume: Platinum 123
Figure 7-3 Realized Scrap Volume: Palladium 124
Figure 7-4 Unrealized Scrap Volume: Palladium 124
Figure 7-5 Realized Scrap Volume: Rhodium 125
Figure 7-6 Unrealized Scrap Volume: Rhodium 125
Figure 7-7 Realized Scrap Volume: Iridium 126
Figure 7-8 Unrealized Scrap Volume: Iridium 126
Figure 7-9 Realized Scrap Volume: Ruthenium 127
Figure 7-10 Unrealized Scrap Volume: Ruthenium 127
7.3 Slag and Mine Waste 127
Figure 7-11 PGM Slag Recovery, North America 128
Figure 7-12 Slag Recovery, North America, by Metal 129
Figure 7-13 PGM Slag Recovery, Rest of World 129
Figure 7-14 Slag Recovery, Rest of World, by Metal 130
Figure 7-15 New PGM Supply with Improved Recovery: Platinum,
Palladium, Rhodium 130
Figure 7-16 New PGM Supply with Improved Recovery: Iridium,
Ruthenium, Osmium 131
7.4 Effect of Improved Recycling and Slag Recovery on PGM Prices 131
Figure 7-17 Conventional Price Forecast: Platinum, Palladium, Rhodium 132
Figure 7-18 Conventional Price Forecast: Iridium, Ruthenium, Osmium 132
Figure 7-19 Prices, with Improved Recovery: Platinum, Palladium, Rhodium 133
Figure 7-20 Prices with Improved Recovery: Iridium, Ruthenium, Osmium 133
Order today
#PGM1—Platinum Group Metals: Issues and Opportunities
$4,800
|
